So, in a little over eight months what has Howard Stern -- the King of all Media -- done for Sirius Satellite Radio? The famous shock jock moved from the public airwaves of CBS to the privately-owned and subscription-only Sirius Radio network in January of 2006, taking a $500 million multi-year contract with him for himself and the crew he operates with (Hi Robin!). But let's pull out the measuring stick and see if Stern has been worth it, although a direct measurement can't really be made. After all, would newer Sirius subscribers have signed up for Sirius if Stern had not moved over? That is the question we can all speculate on, but nobody can definitively answer, although some marketing statisticians have tried.
Sirius has gained customers this year, no doubt about it. Even Mad Money's Jim Cramer calls SIRI stock a "buy" at $4. But there are rumors all over that the overall disappointing performance of Sirius and larger competitor XM Radio might force the two companies to make a deal and merge their networks. Cramer says this would spike SIRI shares to $10 or more. It very well could. Both companies are unprofitable so far (as expected, launching satellites is not cheap), and a merger could eliminate tons of financial redundancies and other factors.
Even as Stern has more than likely brought legions of his fans to the Sirius network in the last eight months, it will take more than the arguable most-popular show host on radio these days to rescue Sirius from mounds of debt and impatient institutional shareholders, who are ready to try and recoup some investment. It's true that it takes time to make a profit after launching satellites (at a cost of hundreds of millions) and facing huge costs up front.
Then you have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on customer rebates to hit price points and marketing costs (like Stern) to drudge up a loyal fan base that will pony up $13 a month to help you pay all that debt off. That's apparently not happening fast enough, even with Stern's recruits onboard.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
9-01-2006 @ 12:11PM
Justin said...
Satellite radio. It's a great concept.
FM/AM radio. Old, but free and convenient.
I don't see a consumer subscription type radio source ever beating FM/AM radio. Maybe if XM or Sirius decide to provide their service free to the end user, it will be something to consider. This would require sponsors and advertisemnt time on air however, which defeats the purpose. The hardware to supply the satellite service is not expensive, and could be available already installed in newer cars, but the subscription fees add up. US consumers already have a list of payments they have to make, house, utilities, cable, gasoline, ...... I don't think satellite radio fees is a worthy contributer the average Americans "list" when you have the free FM/AM service available, which is great in my opinion, NPR is my favorite.
My opinion: Satellite subscription radio is only going to appeal to a selective group of buyers, not the mass. With such lucrative contracts going out to people like Howard Stern, I don't believe these companies can produce green bottom line numbers, but only red. My personal opinion, I would never pay to listen to Stern's show, which is below my taste. Unless they attract the "mass" (which will never happen) will they then ever be considered an "ivestment".
9-01-2006 @ 12:27PM
Brian Sullivan said...
I wouldnt have a problem with some advertisements on satellite radio. I am a subscriber and find it infinitely better than the current am/fm static.
I'd hate to see satellite go away, since other than sports radio, its the only thing i listen to.
9-01-2006 @ 12:39PM
Tom said...
I hope that the satellite companys never give a free service. Cause then Satellite Companies would need more commercials to keep alive. And then the F.C.C. would have to get involved with censoring.
I have Sirius and they have no commercials on their music channels and very little on their exclusive content. Although i did buy my Sirius for Stern, there is so much more to enjoy and i never have listen to old fashion radio since...
9-01-2006 @ 1:06PM
Roy J. Gelesh said...
The reason I think Sirrius is a sound investment is due to a correction in my earlier investment thinking
by the marketplace. "Nobody will pay for cable tv when you can watch the major networks for free."
9-01-2006 @ 1:16PM
Angel said...
Justin an utter neophyte, unless you've tried Satellite Radio you can not make a fair comparison. The whole purpose of Satellite Radio is to provide Niche programming, such as cable TV does, for people that are willing to pay for it.
The Howard Stern Show is not for everyone (the masses), but has a large Niche following. With his exposure and current subscriber base, the word is getting around, which in turn will provide larger revenue.
People, it's a start-up business! It takes time to make back the money you’ve invested. You can’t make comments like "I don't believe these companies can produce green bottom line numbers, but only red" until at least 1-2 yrs from now. Sirius as reported will started breaking even after this Holiday season.
Free radio will never go away. The listener base is at least 250 million, but Satellite radio does not need that many to get out of the red. Now with the new FCC fines in place that will make FM/AM blander, this could only help both satellite companies bottom line.
Please become well informed before making buffoonish opinions.
9-01-2006 @ 1:57PM
Damon Dang said...
A merger between these two companies would be the ideal
move for both investors and the top dogs of these coporations. This ongoing battle for top subscriber growth and positive cash flow will never see light at this rate. The main target should be convincing the public that FM/AM radio may be free but there is so much more to offer.
9-01-2006 @ 2:08PM
Bill Uridel said...
I agree with Angel. There is a place for Satellite Radio. Especially for those of us who live in areas where the selection of stations AM or FM are limited. There is one other factor to condsider. I follow sports. 75% of my reasoning to subscribe to XM was for so I could listen to Major League Baseball and follow any team. Sirius has the NFL. I do believe the mass follows both of those sports.
9-01-2006 @ 2:33PM
Ed said...
The idea that two start-up, money losing endeavors will add up to one money making monopoly is a bit far fetched. First, these two companies use different hardware, software and frequency platforms - which platforms will they adopt? Which subscriber portfolio would they keep? Either way, the result would be a significant outflow of subscribers. The consolidation of certain cost centers would be more than off-set by the resulting outflow of subscribers. Second,there is the anti-trust issues. Commercial radio would view any attempt to merge as a desperate move to survive and would mobilize its lobbying army to nix the deal in an effort to have them (both) die.
9-01-2006 @ 2:44PM
Pipingtree said...
XM radio is fantastic. I bought a GM Tahoe just to get XM. After having XM for 2 years I won't buy another car without it. No comparison to standard free radio. At the time I bought XM I got a great deal like $350 for 3 years. Best thing, of course, is uninterrupted service listening to wide range of choices. I cannot understand why more people haven't taken advantage ofthis great service.
9-01-2006 @ 2:47PM
Matt said...
I agree with Angel. You have to give both of these companies time. If you don't have the patience, then sell.
Don't forget, Sirius has plans to offer video at some point. There is a great opportunity for growth here.
I've had Sirius for 2 years, and couldn't be happier. I almost never listen to old fashioned radio anymore. Between my iPod and satellite, I get all the talk/music/sports I need.
9-01-2006 @ 3:21PM
Justin said...
OK everybody, you made your points on why you like the service and are willing to pay for it. It just seems to me that Howard Stern is getting paid way too much, and I would not want to contribute to an organization that is making that type of contract. As an investor of Sirius, is it in your opinion the best action to see that large amount of your firms money go out to one broadcaster program (Stern's show) in order to get some return on your investment. As an owner of this firm and buyer of this companies stock you are agreeing and giving your blessing to this contract. Too much risk for me in this company. I don't like the precendent it set with this lucrative multi-year contract. Stern is getting paid too much.
I am glad we all have our own views, I just don't see eye to eye with the rest of you people on this topic. However, goodluck with your money allocation, and may your investing be well thought out and wise!
9-01-2006 @ 3:44PM
Angel said...
Thank you Justin. I respect that you admitted your true issue. If the initial problem was your disguste of Howard Stern and his salary, then you should have mentioned it earlier. Your hatred for Stern was not the Subject of this story.
Next time do not make opinions on Satellite radio based on issues you have with an on air personality. Instead they should be based on FACTS.
9-01-2006 @ 7:19PM
Willie Horton said...
Sirius does not need XM, or its liabilities. Given XM's tendency to generate scandal, and their utter lack of programming insight, the best thing Mel and the shareholders can do is allow it to collapse from within.
The biggest potential problem for Sirius is the possibility that Howard Stern might retire in 2011 instead of signing another contract. There are over three million Sirius subscribers -- myself included -- who ONLY listen to Howard. My receiver hasn't moved from his Channel 100 since I first got Sirius. His listeners will be worth at least $300 million dollars per year to Sirius for as long as he is on the "air." The day he retires, they lose us. They know that, so they are undoubtedly preparing to throw the better part of a(nother) billion dollars at him when the time comes.
If it wasn't for Stern, nobody would even consider Sirius a contender in the satellite market... instead, they have stolen the momentum from XM. Most of the high-dollar "personality purchase" deals are clearly failures, but Howard's deal more than paid for itself.
9-01-2006 @ 10:56PM
Jay R. said...
I've read elsewhere on news sites where Stern himself has stated he's disappointed that more fans didn't go over to Sirius with him. And you can't neccessarily say 3 million only listen to Howard. There's no way to tell that the gains over the past year have generated Howard-only subs.
I would say (along with other business/finance watchers) that Howard's sub base is disappointed compared to the salary he is receiving. Stern barely got a reported 9% of his total listener base. Fortunately for me, I sold off the rest of my SIRI shares. XM is brutal but I honestly don't see Sirius going any higher.
As far as an XM-Sirius merger, it'd never be allowed. First off, they'd be a monopoly. Unless another satellite radio provider could pop up overnight and get a lot of subs, the deal is deader than a door nail.
XM has a good business plan with the way they are working Opie and Anthony. The popular duo have not only a large fan base on XM but also have recouped the ailing CBS radio stations.
But back to Sirius. They would have been better off basing Stern's salary on the performance of subscribers that actually went to Sirius than going off of the popularity of his terrestrial show.
I am very disappointed in the way Mel Karmazin is working over Sirius. If I was still a shareholder, I would want answers. Stern isn't worth tanking the company.
9-02-2006 @ 10:59AM
Charlton Haney said...
There are two radio personalities out of Chicago who were from what people have been saying the one's who started the irreverant anything goes radio style format before before Stern.Steve Dahl and Garry Meier were no.1 in there market consistantley for nearly a decade,from late 70's to early 90's.They reunited several week's ago on Steve's current show in Chicago.It was front page new's and all over local media.Comment's from fan's were quite remarkable saying thing's like,"Haven't laughed that hard in 15 YEAR's!"Someone said they are like HEROIN for your ear's,once you hear them you're addicted!!Also a comment I read said,"If the satellite station's don't pick them up alien's will so they can laugh all week and save there beer and smoke for the weekend's!I read some these on the unofficial Stern Fan website.There were several page's just on Steve and Garry's but they all of a sudden have been mysteriously been removed!So much for freedom of the press!
9-02-2006 @ 12:59PM
Tim G. said...
Sirius would be gone without Stern, pure and simple. Stern, and all the hype he has brought with him, have single-handedly saved the company.
I do not want to see a merger, and do not want to see commercials on the music stations. The company simply needs more time to build up its base and revenues.
Speculating on mergers and the future is like asking a baby what it wants to be when it's an adult. Give it time.
9-02-2006 @ 2:16PM
William Devane said...
For $12.95 per month I can buy 13 songs for an IPOD or similar device, or for the same $12.95 I can get a full month of dozens of music channels, Howard Stern, News, weather/traffic, SPORTS-- NFL, and coming in 2007 NASCAR coverage that will beat anything that exists.
If you have listened to SatRad for more than an hour, you are hooked. I would never drive without SatRad, and have it in my home.
Let's see, how often do I watch HBO? Is it worth $12.95 per month? I listen to SatRad several hours per day, and can tell you I would gladly pay double for the service.
9-02-2006 @ 6:10PM
Earl Phillips said...
No one act can save satellite radio. There is a built in audience,truckers,travel sales, full time rv retired folks.
These people know and want this service. Five minute commuters and people driving to the store aren't going to shell out for Howard, Opie and Anthony or even my favorite Ron and Fez.
9-02-2006 @ 9:43PM
Elliott Johnson said...
After reading every comment, all I can say is there were simular beliefs of negativity and skepticisim when land radio was new. I just rented a rental car for 2 weeks that came with sirrius SatRad and I am hooked. Just as some have stated all of the negative possibilities, I have to stick with the positive ones. I think over time, someone at Sirrius will come up with a plan to make this more profitable. At this point I think we are in a stage of testing the waters for what works and what does not. That I believe is common for any new avenue in which we decide to venture in. We are intelligent and we will learn from our mistakes. The Wright Brothers are and excellent example and there are many more. This is too good of a product to just dissapear because of 'growing pains'. Be patient and positve and PROSPER..................
9-02-2006 @ 10:35PM
William Devane said...
Earl Phillips, Do you have cable TV? How many homes do you think has cable TV? Think all the people using IPOD's are long-haul truckers? Think they are all RV travelers? Think they are all travel sales? I think you need to go back to the basher drawing board, because it is obvious that you have no idea what you are stating.